Gold Continues To Consolidate Near $3,333 But The Real Catalysts Haven't Even Arrived Yet
In January, I laid out the bull case for a gold advance to $3,333 in 2025. Gold achieved this target less than 3 months later, but it has continued to return to this price level.
After beginning the week with what appeared to be a breakout move above $3,400/oz, gold ended the week with a whimper—limping to a weekly close at $3,337/oz and shedding roughly 50 basis points.
Gold (Weekly)
It would be unwise to downplay last week’s clear failure to sustain upside momentum above $3,400. However, I do not believe the price action was unusual. We must recognize that we are in the middle of the summer—a period typically characterized by lighter volumes and range-bound mean reversion in Treasury yields and currency markets.
Looking back to summer 2024, gold is currently experiencing a very similar consolidation to the one that occurred from April through August of last year. In 2024, an August breakout above $2,500/oz led to a high near $2,800/oz by the end of October. In 2025, the $3,500 level is playing a similar role to the $2,500 level in 2024.
Much has been written about gold’s seasonal patterns. The simplest seasonal tendencies generally begin at the end of November with a rally that carries through early February, followed by another rally starting in early August that typically lasts into September. Conversely, gold tends to consolidate during May/June and again in October/November.
Several factors typically drive the August–September and December–January gold rallies:
Indian festival season (Diwali) drives jewelry demand, with peak stocking months from November through January.
Chinese wholesalers begin stocking inventory ahead of Chinese New Year—typically starting in November.
Wedding season purchases accelerate in India and the Middle East.
Institutional investors return from summer holidays in early September.
Once the Indian wedding season and Chinese New Year conclude in February, gold tends to consolidate through March and the spring months.
The first major support level for gold is $3,300, followed by $3,225. From a broader perspective, a weekly close below $3,200/oz would raise concerns that a multi-month topping process has been completed. However, continued oscillation between $3,250 and $3,450 does not alter the longer-term technical structure. A breakout above $3,500/oz, on the other hand, would project toward the $3,700–$3,800 area—aligning with Goldman Sachs’ year-end 2025 price targets.
While gold closed in the red last week, the gold mining sector continues to outperform the metal. Historically, this kind of outperformance from gold equities has been a bullish omen for the metal itself.
HUI Gold Bugs Index (Monthly)
The HUI Gold Bugs Index is in the midst of a powerful breakout from a decade-long bottoming process. The index is up 5.81% for the month, with four trading days left in July.
Gold mining giant Newmont (NYSE: NEM) closed the week up 13%, marking its highest weekly close in more than three years.
NEM (Weekly)
Top-three global gold producer Barrick (NYSE: GOLD, TSX: ABX) finished the week nearly 5% higher, continuing to trade near its 52-week highs.
Barrick Mining (Daily)
In the junior space, two top-tier Yukon gold explorers closed the week at fresh 52-week and all-time highs, respectively:
Banyan Gold (Daily)
Sitka Gold (Daily)
Overall, the gold sector looks extremely healthy. The combination of record producer profitability, a compelling "Fourth Turning" macro backdrop, and a sector that has only recently emerged from the depths of despair presents a strong case for continued upside in the coming months.
At the start of the year, my 2025 gold price target was $3,333/oz. That level was exceeded by April, and interestingly, gold continues to gravitate back toward it—closing right near it again on Friday. However, many of the key catalysts I outlined in an hour-long video from January have yet to materialize:
A trade deal and the reshaping of the global monetary order between Trump and Xi remain elusive—but make no mistake, it is still coming, possibly as early as Q4 this year. Despite the economic propaganda, China continues to slump into deflation.
This makes it all the more likely that China will take bold steps to stimulate and restructure its economy over the next 12 months.
Meanwhile, the prospect of Fed rate cuts beginning in September and continuing into 2026, combined with fiscal stimulus from the “Big Beautiful Bill,” greatly increases the likelihood of a “bear steepening boom” that favors commodities.
To add a cherry on top, I expect the Treasury and the Fed will coordinate to cap long-end Treasury yields below 5.00%. This “stealth QE,” in the form of yield curve control, would supercharge demand for hard assets.
To wit, don’t fret over last week’s weak close in precious metals. Keep your eye on the ball, and don’t be surprised if Friday’s U.S. non-farm payrolls report for July registers the weakest print of the year—potentially coming in well below 100,000 new jobs. A weak set of employment data would increase the odds of a September rate cut, and support a more dovish Jackson Hole speech from Fed Chair Jerome Powell at the end of August.
Disclosure: Author owns shares of Banyan Gold and Sitka Gold at the time of publishing and may choose to buy or sell at any time without notice.
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