The Charts Of The Week: Bitcoin Jesus, Extreme Fear, Trillion Dollar Pharma, & Tax Loss Silly Season In Junior Mining
A meaty edition of Charts of the Week including Bitcoin, Eli Lilly, MSTR, NexGen, Hercules Metals & much more!
It was another week of volatility across markets, including major breakdowns in Bitcoin and the broader crypto complex. By Thursday morning, it appeared that another stellar quarter from Nvidia (Nasdaq: NVDA) was going to save markets. However, an opening gap higher was quickly reversed, with the S&P 500 going from a ~2% gain to a 1.5% decline on the day. Meanwhile, Bitcoin snapped support near $90,000, tumbling all the way to a low of $80,600 on Friday:
Bitcoin (Daily)
The current situation in Bitcoin is reminiscent of May/June 2022, when the world’s largest digital currency fell from ~$48,000 to ~$18,000 over the span of three months.
On the plus side, Bitcoin is deeply oversold, with the highest amount of fear and worst investor sentiment in at least two years.
On the negative side, it is more likely that Bitcoin is in “May 2022 territory” (the bottom occurred in June 2022), with the potential for one more downdraft before a real, sustainable low is in place.
With that being said, I believe the odds favor a 1–2 week rebound in Bitcoin, crypto, and Michael Saylor’s MSTR.
MSTR (Daily)
MSTR has declined for seven consecutive weeks and eight of the last nine.
Zooming out to the weekly chart, we can see just how significant the current decline is—essentially representing a decisive breakdown from a 12-month trading range:
MSTR (Weekly)
MSTR is now deeply oversold across all timeframes, and Friday’s close right at the rising 156-week moving average is significant. A bounce-back to the $200–$230 range should be expected in the near term. Should such a rebound fail to materialize, it would be a highly concerning sign that Michael Saylor’s Strategy is at increased risk of a painful unwinding.
A question worth pondering: What is driving the selling in cryptocurrency?
The proximate causes for the Bitcoin/crypto decline appear to be a classic combination of excess speculation and leverage unwinding, potentially triggered by growing speculation that MSTR will be removed from one or more MSCI Inc. global indices.
MSCI has publicly announced a consultation regarding companies whose primary business involves crypto-treasury activities (e.g., large Bitcoin holdings), suggesting these may be excluded from the “global investable market indexes.”
Estimates suggest that if MSTR is excluded from MSCI’s relevant indices (e.g., MSCI USA or MSCI World), the resulting flows could be significant—on the order of US$2.8 billion from MSCI funds alone, and up to US$8.8 billion if other index providers follow.
MSTR’s once-lofty US$100 billion market cap has fallen to US$49 billion, meaning that US$9 billion of forced selling would have a substantial impact on the share price. It is likely that some of the recent decline is front-running this possibility, which is set to be announced on January 15th, 2026.
Removal from the MSCI global indices (and potentially others such as the Nasdaq-100) would deliver a devastating blow to MSTR’s market liquidity and cost of capital—potentially dethroning the man Forbes dubbed “The Bitcoin Alchemist” less than one year ago.
“MicroStrategy’s eye-popping gains have stirred up a swarm of critics and short sellers unable to fathom how a tiny software company holding only $48 billion in actual bitcoin could have a market capitalization of $84 billion. But what Saylor’s detractors fail to understand is that MicroStrategy is brilliantly straddling two realms: one bound by the rules of traditional finance, in which companies issue debt and equity bought and sold by hedge funds, traders and other institutions, and the second governed by the faithful, unwavering believers in a better world brought to you by bitcoin.”
The above paragraph from the Forbes piece on Saylor sums it up. It could also prove to be a perfect summary of what ultimately caused MSTR’s unraveling; once one of the realms MSTR was “brilliantly straddling” comes undone, the other realm is likely next.
While it has been a volatile few weeks across equities, don’t tell that to Eli Lilly (NYSE: LLY); the pharma giant became the first pharmaceutical company to reach a US$1 trillion market cap.
LLY (Weekly)
Lilly is benefiting from blockbuster growth in GLP-1 / obesity / diabetes drugs. Mounjaro and Zepbound generated over US$10 billion in Q3 alone, representing more than half of the company’s US$17.6 billion revenue for the quarter. This market (obesity + diabetes + cardiometabolic) is expected to remain a major secular growth driver, and Lilly is seen as significantly ahead of many peers.
The recent stock-market volatility appears to be at least partially exacerbated by a Federal Reserve that cannot make up its mind. Last week, analysts at Morgan Stanley were whipsawed by an assortment of Fed speakers and a two-month-old jobs report. On Thursday, Morgan Stanley revised its outlook, scrapping a predicted December rate cut due to September’s robust employment report. Nonfarm payrolls rose 119,000—far above the expected 53,000—while unemployment held steady at 4.4% as more people joined the workforce. Chief economist Michael Gapen pointed to this resilience as a sign against sharp downturns.
But then on Friday, John Williams of the New York Federal Reserve described U.S. monetary policy as “modestly restrictive” and suggested it is somewhat less restrictive than it was prior to the latest policy actions. In addition, he explicitly stated there is room for a further adjustment in the near term to the federal funds-rate target range in order to move policy closer to “neutral.”
Williams’ remarks were not an explicit comment on the December meeting. Still, traders moved quickly Friday, interpreting “near term” as a strong hint about what comes next. Krishna Guha of Evercore ISI noted that the most natural reading of the phrase points to the December meeting, and stated that senior Fed officials rarely float strong policy signals without coordination from Chair Jerome Powell.
After falling to nearly 20% on Thursday, December rate-cut odds ended close to 70% by Friday’s close.
Clearly, the Fed has no idea what it’s doing, and just about anything could happen at the December FOMC meeting—unsettling for market participants who could use some reassurance after a rough ride so far in November.
Gold is coiled up nicely, forming a symmetrical triangle on the daily chart as sentiment returns to neutral territory.
Gold (Daily)
I expect another couple of weeks of oscillation and digestion for gold before a strong rally begins around mid-December. We could see new all-time highs in gold by the end of January.
Turning to junior mining, despite an otherwise positive year in 2025, there is no doubt that “tax loss silly season” is in full swing. Many junior mining stocks peaked in September/October and have since suffered significant declines ranging from 30% to 50%.
For those who are new to this game and remain baffled as to why a 10% correction in gold/silver results in a junior miner getting cut in half, all I can say is that this sector has a strong tendency to overdo it on both the upside and the downside. Earlier in the year, many stocks rose between 300%–500%, far outpacing the gains in the gold price. Now we are seeing the flip side of those advances.
We begin with the largest market-cap juniors and proceed down the food chain.
After peaking in late October, the uranium sector has declined ~30% in less than a month. Preeminent Athabasca Basin uranium developer NexGen Energy (NYSE: NXE, TSX: NXE) is sitting on major support after peaking near US$10 per share in October.
NXE (Daily)
It is notable that NXE made successive marginal new highs on fading momentum in September and October. Meanwhile, I must say that I am warming up to opening a new long position in NXE near the rising 156-day moving average.
NexGen expects to receive final permits to commence construction of its flagship Rook I Project in Saskatchewan in 2026. Once final permitting is complete, a four-year build-out is expected. That puts first production likely in 2030.
Once in production, NXE stands to grow into a tier-1 uranium producer (Rook I is designed to produce ~28–30 million lbs U₃O₈ annually in the early years).
Turning to the U.S., Minnesota critical-minerals explorer Talon Metals (TSX: TLO, OTC: TLOFF) is continuing the consolidation that began in August.
Talon Metals (Weekly)
While some may be frustrated that Talon shares are flat over the last three months, there are emerging signs that Talon may be on the verge of embarking on its next leg higher. These positive signs include a fading correlation to rare-earths play MP Materials (NYSE: MP), and last week’s 2.5% gain in Talon despite declines across all major equity indices. Additionally, progress in terms of federal government support for critical-minerals development continues apace—the SPEED Act (a comprehensive permitting-reform package) has moved into the House of Representatives for a full vote in the coming weeks (H/T PILATVS on CEO.ca).
Minnesota Congressman Pete Stauber stated:
“In Northern Minnesota, we face some of the worst impacts. Projects like Twin Metals, NewRange, and Talon Metals are stalled, costing us the chance to mine the critical minerals the world needs for batteries and national security. Even basic water and road projects miss our short construction window because of delays—adding hundreds of thousands of dollars that local taxpayers end up footing for these critical infrastructure projects.
“I am appreciative of the committee for adopting the amendment I offered alongside Rep. Golden, which reflects months of bipartisan collaboration to provide certainty for project sponsors and protect approved projects from being yanked away for political reasons when administrations change. It takes politics out of permitting, something both sides say they want.
“I urge the full House to quickly pass the SPEED Act and finally deliver real permitting reform.”
Meanwhile, three core rigs are hard at work focused on rapid delineation of resources within the Vault Zone. I expect the next drilling update from Talon could arrive in early December.
A couple of fallen former angels that have suffered significant tax-loss silly season declines include TDG Gold (TSX-V: TDG) and Hercules Metals (TSX-V: BIG).
TDG Gold (Daily)
After a big run-up in September on the back of intersecting 100 meters grading 2.24 g/t gold in the first hole of the 2025 drill program, TDG shares have fallen back to Earth, nearly filling the September gap at $0.76.
The subsequent holes from the 2025 program did not match the results of drill hole TDG25-001 (drilled near-vertical and within 20 meters of the boundary with Freeport-McMoRan / Amarc Resources’ AuRORA gold-rich copper-porphyry-style discovery). However, the potential at the Greater Shasta–Newberry Project in the Toodoggone District of northern British Columbia remains substantial, with multiple mineralized zones and target areas deserving greater attention in 2026. Meanwhile, TDG has a number of northwestern B.C. VMS projects that could deliver upside surprises in 2026.
Color me a buyer of TDG in the mid-$.70s.
Hercules Metals (Daily)
Shares of Idaho copper-silver explorer Hercules Metals have drifted since reaching a September peak at $0.89. BIG.V is at its lowest levels since the early-April tariff turmoil, as investors seem increasingly content to book losses for tax purposes and wait until the new year to reassess the company’s progress.
To its credit, Hercules updated its corporate presentation with several key details:
• MT (magnetotellurics) geophysics update: Moombarriga USA is now infilling the Phase I reconnaissance survey at 500-meter station spacing over Leviathan and a highly compelling southern extension.
• Olympus Belt: Hercules is evaluating an MT survey over the entire 73-km belt.
• 2025 drilling: Ongoing until early December.
• Results: Reporting expected through Q1 2026.
• 2026 drilling: Will commence once geophysical modeling of the new Phase II MT+ELF (Extremely Low Frequency) infill survey is completed over the southern anomaly.
Similar to Talon, I expect a drilling/results update from Hercules within the next couple of weeks.
I’ll conclude by noting that there were some green shoots for equities on Friday, with the IWM small-cap ETF trading up nearly 3% on the day and printing a potential hammer reversal candlestick on the weekly:
IWM (Weekly)
It should also be noted that Thanksgiving week is, by far, the most bullish week of the year for equities historically.
This is via Quantified Strategies:
“There are 63 trades since 1960, the average gain is 0.64%, the win ratio is 68%, the profit factor is 2.2, and the max drawdown is 7%. This equals a CAGR of 0.6% while being invested just 1.6% of the time. The gain is higher than for any random week during the year.”
Premium subscribers, please stay tuned for the next Tax Loss Silly Season strategy video early this week, and all readers should expect my annual Tax Loss Silly Season Shopping List article during the first week of December.
Disclosure: Author owns shares of Talon Metals and Hercules Metals at the time of publishing. Author may also buy or sell any of the stocks mentioned in this article without notice.
DISCLAIMER: The work included in this article is based on current events, technical charts, company news releases, corporate presentations and the author’s opinions. It may contain errors, and you shouldn’t make any investment decision based solely on what you read here. This publication contains forward-looking statements, including but not limited to comments regarding predictions and projections. Forward-looking statements address future events and conditions and therefore involve inherent risks and uncertainties. Actual results may differ materially from those currently anticipated in such statements. This article is provided for informational and entertainment purposes only and is not a recommendation to buy or sell any security. Always thoroughly do your own due diligence and talk to a licensed investment adviser prior to making any investment decisions. Junior resource companies can easily lose 100% of their value so read company profiles on www.SEDAR.com for important risk disclosures. It’s your money and your responsibility.