The Charts of The Week: China Trouble, Gold/Oil Ratio, & Critical Mineral Vulnerabilities

We are witnessing a very unusual market dynamic with surging gold/silver prices amid a tumbling oil price environment.

During the 2001-2008 gold bull market ($300/oz to $1,000/oz), the price of crude oil also rose spectacularly (from $16/barrel to more than $140/barrel):

WTI Crude Oil (2001-2009)

In fact, in the last fifty years there has never been a market like the current one—with strongly rising gold prices amid a declining crude oil price.

Bank of America notes that “15 barrels of oil bought 1 ounce of gold in Jun’22, now takes 61”. Meanwhile, the large US bank sees more softness in crude oil ahead as OPEC supply continues to weigh on prices.

As of today’s closing prices, the gold/oil ratio is up to 68!

What does it mean?

In my estimation, the surge in this ratio since 2022 is an indication that oil remains in abundant supply while central bank reserve alternatives to US Treasuries are in scarce supply. A rising gold/oil ratio is also nirvana for the gold mining sector; profitability among GDX components has never been greater, and margins continue to grow.

Source: Katusa

Oil fell another 5% on Friday as industrial commodities came under heavy pressure due to a sharp escalation of trade war rhetoric between President Trump and China. Oil-related equities were ferociously sold-off with Haliburton (NYSE:HAL) falling more than 6% on the trading session:

HAL (Daily)

The US/China trade war rhetoric is escalating into the close of business on Friday afternoon with Trump calling for an additional 100% tariff on all imports from China.

It feels like we just went back in time exactly six months to early April. However, the U.S. economy remains woefully unprepared for a full-blown trade war with China. In April, Trump folded quickly after the Treasury market came unglued. It is unclear to me how this episode will end differently than it did in April.

If anything, China is in a stronger position with more gold stockpiled and a virtually insurmountable stranglehold on global rare earths processing and refining.

The week began with another U.S. government investment in a critical minerals project, including an executive order greenlighting a 211 mile access road to one of the richest copper deposits in North America (Trilogy’s Arctic and Bornite Deposits).

TMQ (Daily)

In Monday night’s missive, I listed ten companies/projects that I view as candidates for U.S. federal government investments over the coming months. Based on last week’s market action, it appears that the market liked some of my ideas.

Ivanhoe Electric (Weekly)

Ivanhoe Electric (NYSE:IE) shares broke-out to multi-year highs on enormous trading volume, eventually finishing the week +15.84%.

Perpetua Resources (Weekly)

Idaho Antimony-Gold developer Perpetua Resources (NYSE:PPTA) rose ~18% on the week. Two weeks ago, Perpetua announced an update on ongoing efforts to secure the American antimony supply chain. These efforts include expanding domestic mineral processing capacity in the U.S.A.

It’s also interesting to note that both IE and PPTA currently have relatively high short interest (9%-10%), adding fuel to the upside moves.

Talon Metals (Weekly)

Talon Metals (TSX:TLO, OTC:TLOFF) rose ~28% on the week—the weekly chart shows a powerful breakout from a multi-week ascending triangle pattern on accelerating volume.

It’s a beautiful thing when the macro and micro fundamentals align with chart technicals.

Finally, we are seeing some insane upside moves in early-stage U.S. tungsten explorers.

American Tungsten (Daily)

The magic of a tight share structure, a hot critical metal that is essential for military/defense applications, and a great company name.

A lot of junior mining CEOs are going to be pouring over old assay sheets checking for antimony and tungsten credits this weekend.

The US/China spat seems likely to only worsen and that means it makes more sense than ever before to invest in companies that support the Western raw materials supply chain. One might even say that some of these companies are integral to the US critical minerals supply chain (see Perpetua and Talon). I want to focus on the following ten critical metals, and the highest quality companies exploring/developing deposits in safe jurisdictions (review Monday’s article for a good start):

• Aluminum — Lightweight structural metal for aircraft, helicopters, UAVs, transport vehicles, and many ship structures. High strength-to-weight and corrosion resistance make it central to mobility and airpower.

• Titanium — Exceptional strength-to-weight, corrosion resistance and heat tolerance for fighter airframes, engine parts, missile components, and naval systems where weight and toughness matter.

• Copper — Essential for electrical wiring, power distribution, radio/communications, electromagnetic coils, and thermal management. Copper (and copper alloys) enable radios, radar, and almost every modern electronic system.

• Nickel — Key for stainless steels and high-temperature superalloys used in jet engines, gas turbines, naval propulsion, and corrosion-resistant components. Also important in batteries (nickel-based chemistries).

• Cobalt — Critical in high-temperature superalloys for turbine blades and in rechargeable batteries (Li-ion cathodes, etc.). Important where heat resilience and energy density are needed.

• Tungsten — Very high density and high melting point — used for armor-piercing kinetic penetrators, counterweights, and high-temperature tooling. It’s the go-to for dense, high-momentum projectiles when depleted uranium isn’t used.

• Uranium (depleted & enriched) — Enriched uranium for nuclear propulsion and weapons; depleted uranium for armor-piercing munitions and ballast. (Dual-use and highly strategic.)

• Antimony (Sb) — Antimony plays a surprisingly critical role in modern military technology—both directly in munitions and indirectly in alloys, electronics, and flame protection. Its strategic value stems from its unique metallurgical and chemical properties that no easy substitute fully replicates. Few elements harden lead as effectively without toxic or metallurgical trade-offs. The U.S. has no domestic mine production of primary antimony and relies heavily on China, Russia, and Tajikistan, making it a strategic vulnerability in prolonged conflict.

• Lithium — The backbone of modern high-energy batteries (portable electronics, UAVs, missiles, electric vehicles and energy storage). Battery technology is central to modern warfare’s mobility and electronics endurance.

• Rare-earth metals (e.g., neodymium, dysprosium, praseodymium) — Critical for powerful permanent magnets, guidance systems, precision actuators, radar, jamming, and laser/optical systems. Small volumes but outsized strategic importance.

China’s rare earth dominance is the single most acute resource vulnerability for the U.S. and its allies — a structural imbalance where an entire generation of advanced technology and defense capability depends on Beijing’s refining capacity.

That’s why rare earths, alongside lithium, cobalt, and antimony, are now at the center of U.S. industrial policy, defense planning, and “friendshoring” initiatives designed to rebuild domestic resilience in the 2020s.

Trump has no cards to play with China, but the U.S. will accelerate the development of its strategic minerals mining and processing capabilities. Due to the overwhelming national security implications of its vulnerable supply chain, there is no alternative.

Disclosure: Author owns Perpetua Resources and Talon Metals at the time of publishing and may choose to buy or sell at any time without notice.

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