The Largest Copper Deposit In North America Approaches Construction With Copper Back Above $5/lb
While the largest undeveloped copper asset in North America is on the brink of receiving a greenlight for construction to commence, there is no magic bullet to looming global copper supply deficits.
After an incredible rise in March, followed by a swan dive collapse in early April, copper is back on the uptrend rising above $5.00/lb on the COMEX.
Copper (Daily)
The proximate causes of the rise in copper are as follows:
Trump 2.0 is considering a 25% tariff on US copper imports under section 232 (national security threat), mirroring the approach used for steel and aluminum. Trump seems to like the 25% number because it is high enough to trigger a major change in buyer and supplier behavior, but it isn’t high enough to completely crush trade.
Global copper demand is set to grow at a steady ~3% rate in 2025.
So far, supply from mine production and recycling is managing to keep pace with demand growth. However, a surge in AI data center related copper demand and global infrastructure build-outs stand to tip global copper supply/demand back into deficit next year
According to the latest forecasts, AI data center demand for copper could reach 1 million tonnes by 2030, requiring 3 new mega-mines simply to meet data center construction consumption.
Additionally, other underappreciated future sources of copper demand include:
Rebuilding Ukraine and other war torn areas such as Gaza, and …… Los Angeles?
Robotics (1 million humanoid robots by 2035?) - Each humanoid robot requires an estimated 30 kilograms of copper.
Modernizing the outdated US power grid - This is the big one, and a source of copper demand that is virtually unlimited. On average, the US power grid is over 40 years old and a significant portion of transmission lines and transformers have already exceeded their expected lifespans. This archaic power grid infrastructure makes many parts of the US increasingly vulnerable to weather events. Modernizing the US power grid is nothing short of a multi-trillion dollar project that requires an immense amount of copper.
Emerging market growth - Demand from populous countries like India, Nigeria, China, and the Middle East; billions of people around the world want to enter the 21st century with modern infrastructure, 5G WiFi, electric vehicles, and AI at their fingertips.
Remember the Chinese billionaire who amassed a US$1 billion long position in copper futures on the Shanghai Futures Exchange in May?
So far, Zhongcai is looking like very smart money.
Copper miners are responding to the red metal’s renewed ascent; producers such as Freeport McMoRan (NYSE:FCX), First Quantum (TSX:FM), and Southern Copper (NYSE:SCCO) all made new YTD highs last week:
FCX (Daily)
First Quantum Minerals (Daily)
SCCO (Daily)
The copper mining state in the US is Arizona, and there are a number of Arizona copper developers whose share prices reawakened last week:
ASCU.TO (Daily)
FDY.TO (Daily)
GCU.TO (Daily)
There couldn’t be a more important state for copper mining and US critical minerals supply chain independence than Arizona. Not only does Arizona produce ~70% of US copper production, but it also the home of many large development stage copper assets, including the largest development stage copper deposit in North America.
While the copper bull market is still in its infancy, there is a very important US copper project that is being advanced to production by the two largest mining companies in the world, Rio Tinto and BHP. The story of the Resolution Copper Deposit is one for mining lore, filled with the full spectrum of the mining experiences including an improbable deep discovery during a copper bear market, to a multi-decade permitting fiasco.
If the ore body wasn’t so exceptional, these major mining firms would have given up on Resolution a long time ago. However, due to its incredible location (60 miles east of Phoenix) in the heart of the Arizona Copper Belt, its exceptionally high grade (more than 1.50% Cu average grade) and behemoth size (~1.8 billion tonnes) the two mining majors (the Resolution JV is 55% Rio Tinto/45% BHP) have persevered, spending more than US$2 billion in the process.
Why spend $2 billion to advance a project that has no certainty of ultimately being built?
Because Rio Tinto and BHP appreciate the one of a kind value of this high-grade copper asset in the best mining state in the United States. In addition, politics changes over time, while the enduring human need for copper does not.
Resolution is a proposed underground mine that is expected to become the largest copper mine in North America, supplying copper that’s critical to everyday life. RIO/BHP’s aim is that the mine will produce as much as 40 billion pounds of copper over 40 years. This makes Resolution a truly multi-cycle world class copper asset in a tier-1 jurisdiction.
Regulatory & Permitting Progress
On June 16, 2025, the U.S. Forest Service (USFS) republished the Final Environmental Impact Statement (FEIS) and Draft Record of Decision (DROD) to proceed with the congressionally mandated land swap—this reissue opens a 45-day objection window, followed by a 90-day review period.
The land swap—transferring ~2,422 acres of Oak Flat from federal ownership to Resolution Copper—can proceed 60 days after the FEIS appeared in the Federal Register, which was published on June 20. Thus, the earliest possible transfer date is August 19, 2025.
Legal Developments
Most recently, a U.S. District Judge (Dominic Lanza) ruled that the land exchange cannot move forward until 60 days after the FEIS release, allowing all parties to review and respond.
In late May 2025, The Supreme Court refused to hear an appeal by Apache Stronghold, effectively allowing the lower-court approval for the land transfer to stay in effect.
Next Steps & Timeline
Land Swap - Expected Q3 2025.
Regulatory Obligations Kick In & the Approved Plan of Operations goes live - expected in late 2025.
Funding of final engineering studies (e.g., geotechnical, hydrogeological, subsidence modeling), and procurement begins (ore sorting demo already initiated by Rio Tinto) - late 2025.
Final Investment Decision - Expected in Q4 2025 or Q1 2026, with a positive decision from Rio Tinto & BHP including a commitment of construction capital and the commencement of construction activities in 2H 2026.
First Production - This is a tricky one, but best estimates show first production at Resolution likely occurring in 2031/2032. The moment of first production will be the culmination of more than 30 years of work, and many billions of dollars in expenditures by the world’s two largest mining companies.
Economic Impact
Over a projected 60-year lifespan, the Resolution Mine could generate up to $61 billion in direct economic value for Arizona—nearly $1 billion per year. The employment impact from Resolution will be substantial including approximately 1,400–1,500 full-time, well-paid union positions when fully operational, with a payroll between $105 million and $149 million annually. Additionally, indirect employment is expected to total around 2,200–2,300 additional jobs (from suppliers and local spending), supporting total annual compensation of roughly $136 million.
Over the mine’s lifespan, it is expected to generate nearly $20 billion in combined federal, state, county, and local tax revenues. Meanwhile, the mine will deliver over $2 billion in infrastructure enhancements—water management, power, and transport—that also benefit broader regional development in Arizona.
The commencement of construction at Resolution will be an important milestone for US critical minerals independence, however, we will need to build many Resolution size copper mines over the next decade in order to have any chance of bridging the looming supply shortfalls.
If there is any lesson to be drawn from the 30-year Resolution Copper saga, it is that there simply aren’t enough mega-projects that can come online fast enough to meet surging global copper demand. The next decade will likely be characterized by governments supporting the mining industry in ways that were previously unthinkable, including in the financing and construction of metals processing infrastructure including smelters, refineries, and other processing facilities.
Number go up.
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