The Most Underrated Metal Of 2025
After a decade of going nowhere, platinum could be poised to shine.
Metals like gold, copper, and even antimony have been getting all the attention in 2025. However, platinum could be the most underrated metal currently - a metal poised to shine as demand exceeds expectations.
Platinum has been in deficit for the past two years, meaning that demand has exceeded supply from mine production and recycling. Another deficit is projected for 2025, meaning the market will need to draw on diminishing above-surface inventories of platinum.
The total value of annual global platinum supply is US$7 billion (a paltry number in comparison to US$500 billion in annual global gold supply). Platinum supply is expected to be depressed again in 2025, declining by 4% year-on-year.
With aging mines in geopolitically risky locations and a marked lack of new investment in global platinum production, the supply side of the equation is heavily challenged. The World Platinum Investment Council estimates that the global mined supply of platinum will decline 6% this year to 5.4 million ounces.
But it is the demand side of the equation that makes all the difference for the price of the metal. Unlike gold, platinum lacks central bank buying. Automotive use drives ~40% of annual platinum demand, with jewelry and various industrial applications making up more than 50% of annual demand. Investment demand for platinum accounts for the remaining ~9% of annual global consumption of the white metal.
The primary use of platinum in automobiles is in catalytic converters—which electric vehicles (EVs) do not require. As EV adoption has expanded, investors have grown concerned that automotive platinum demand could decline sharply over the next decade.
However, there is growing evidence that EV demand and market share are beginning to plateau. Car buyers around the world are reluctant to give up the convenience of internal combustion engine (ICE) vehicles. Relatively low oil and gasoline prices have also contributed to the slowdown in EV adoption, which is bullish for platinum.
Perhaps most importantly, hybrid vehicles tend to use platinum rather than palladium in their catalytic converters, and hybrids are becoming increasingly popular—another positive development for platinum demand.
Platinum (Monthly)
Since 2021, platinum has been the easiest futures market to position trade: Simply buy each time it drops below $900/oz and wait for a rebound above $1,000/oz, then sell-short near $1,100/oz and wait to cover on the inevitable decline to below $900/oz.
Rinse and repeat.
Commodity markets have a tendency to remain in range-bound oscillations for extended periods of time. These oscillations serve to lull market participants into a state of complacency - at the point of peak complacency the market does the unexpected and proceeds to make a powerful directional move that results in the formation of a new market trend.
Those who are slow to react to the changing character of the market may miss out on significant gains—or worse, find themselves on the wrong side of the new trend.
What if platinum is on the verge of breaking-out from its 4-year range-bound oscillation?
In the event of a confirmed breakout above $1100/oz, the minimum upside objective for the move would be $1335/oz.
What could drive the platinum price to $1300+ in 2025? The clear answer is the underappreciated rising jewelry demand for platinum globally.
Market forecasters do not appear to have caught up with the potential impacts of the large gold price rise on platinum. In Q1 2025, it is estimated that investment demand for platinum rose about 300% compared to Q1 2024. Meanwhile, consensus forecasts for full year 2025 still see a 2% drop in investment demand for platinum. Additionally, jewelry demand gained 9% in Q1, paced by strong growth in China.
Chinese jewelry demand could be a major positive. With the large increase in the gold price, platinum can act as a substitute for white gold (75% gold and 25% nickel and zinc) in engagement rings and other jewelry. Platinum and gold metal price differentials are also forecast to help drive 7%-8% platinum jewelry demand growth in Europe and the US in 2025.
Platinum is underrated and largely under the radar, but that could soon change. A relatively small shift from the current forecast of a 4% decline in global platinum demand in 2025 to a 1% increase could have an outsized impact on the metal's price.
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