The Psychology of Bull Markets: Greed, Fear, FOMO, & Adjusting To Higher Prices
Many commodity/mining investors are facing something they're not used to: A running bull market that doesn't give many opportunities to buy dips.
We’re eight trading days into 2026, already the TSX-Venture Composite is up more than 10% and the GDXJ is up more than 11%. Meanwhile, silver producers such as Hecla Mining (NYSE:HL) and Coeur Mining (NYSE:CDE) are up ~27% and ~19% respectively.
TSX-Venture Composite (Daily)
Even more impressive is that the metals bull market is spreading to metals that failed to perform in 2025. Since the end of last year, nickel has risen more than 10%, while palladium is up more than 20%. This reflects a broader flight to hard assets as competition between the U.S. and China continues to heat up.
Companies that were previously mired in the doldrums have suddenly sprung to life in recent months, with many making new 52-week highs early in the new year.
Canada Nickel (Daily)
Meanwhile, stocks that had stellar performances in 2025 are continuing to trend higher and reach higher highs in recent days.
Banyan Gold (Daily)
I’ve had several investors recently express a challenge they’re facing at this stage of the bull market: they can’t seem to pull the trigger on stocks that were already up big in the second half of 2025. Psychologically, these investors remain anchored to the price environment of the previous junior-mining bear market, waiting for a correction to initiate new positions or add to existing ones.
The problem is two-fold:
In a strong bull market, you’re not going to get an easy fat-pitch entry point at your preferred price level—you’re going to have to pay up and take the offer to get in.
When a real correction does finally arrive, it’s going to be so violent and scary that you most likely won’t want to buy it.
That means you need to make a conscious decision about whether you want to participate in the ongoing metals and mining bull market. If the answer is yes, the next step is to construct a portfolio that aligns with your risk tolerance and investment time frame.
If you feel an overwhelming urge to chase stocks on a day when everything on your screen is green, I would urge you to take a cold shower and instead channel that energy into building a watch list. Follow the stocks on your list and learn as much as you can about them over the next month. By the end of that period, I suspect you’ll have learned a great deal—and you’ll likely have a much clearer sense of when, and at what price, you’d like to buy.
Who knows? You may even get a fat-pitch buying opportunity in the meantime.
For those with a high risk tolerance, junior miners may be the right fit. For investors with a much lower tolerance for volatility, it likely makes more sense to stick with large producers or gold royalty companies such as Franco-Nevada (NYSE: FNV) or Barrick (NYSE: B).
Franco-Nevada (Monthly)
Barrick Mining (Monthly)
While there is no doubt that a large wave of new, non-specialist capital is moving into the precious-metals mining sector—on a scale I’ve never seen before—I also don’t think we can overestimate the impact that $4,000+ gold and $75+ silver prices will have on the economic prospects of many resource-stage projects held by junior miners.
We should not remain anchored to valuations that prevailed in past market environments—environments defined by very different geopolitical and macroeconomic fundamentals.
Yes, it’s different this time. Just look around.
The laws of physics, mathematics, and economics have not changed. But if there was ever a year when the world clearly shifted on the global stage, that year was 2025. Accept that the world has changed—and that it continues to change at an accelerating pace.
A final thought on silver and the prospect of a correction.
I’ve seen no shortage of ominous prognostications calling for a silver top, with comparisons to January 1980 or April 2011. I understand the concern—the move in silver has been shocking, and $89/oz does sound like a high price.
However, I do not see a blow-off top yet. What I see instead is a powerful bull market that has caught many by surprise and left short sellers broken and battered. Moreover, today’s silver market fundamentals bear little resemblance to those of 1980 or 2011 in any meaningful way.
That said, I do believe silver would benefit from cooling off (lower volatility) and finding price acceptance above $75/oz. If prices rise too far, too fast, they will begin to impinge on industrial demand (data that we will only be able to view in the rearview mirror several months from now). In the near term, I would view $100/oz silver as “too high.” That said, six months from now I could easily change my mind.
A correction in metals and mining equities could arrive at any time, and I believe the most likely catalyst for a sharp pullback in the first half of 2026 would be a geopolitical black swan (Iran? Greenland?), rather than economic trends or monetary policy. That means it would likely be the type of correction we ultimately want to buy—but one that will feel very uncomfortable and frightening in the moment.
I believe the odds of a near-term correction (over the next 30 days) are above average, which is why I’ve raised some additional cash in recent weeks.
But I want to be clear: I believe in this bull market, and it is exactly the kind of powerful long-term trend that can carry higher for several years.
DISCLAIMER: The work included in this article is based on current events, technical charts, company news releases, corporate presentations and the author’s opinions. It may contain errors, and you shouldn’t make any investment decision based solely on what you read here. This publication contains forward-looking statements, including but not limited to comments regarding predictions and projections. Forward-looking statements address future events and conditions and therefore involve inherent risks and uncertainties. Actual results may differ materially from those currently anticipated in such statements. This article is provided for informational and entertainment purposes only and is not a recommendation to buy or sell any security. Always thoroughly do your own due diligence and talk to a licensed investment adviser prior to making any investment decisions. Junior resource companies can easily lose 100% of their value so read company profiles on www.SedarPlus.ca for important risk disclosures. It’s your money and your responsibility.
Any thoughts on Inventus Mining? GNGXF