This Is The Last Opportunity Before It's Time To Have Fun Staying Poor

Today, we sit in the final years of the Fourth Turning with a virtually unprecedented financial repression looming. The next few years could represent a last chance financial opportunity for many....

In 2025, with tectonic shifts underway across the global financial system and monetary world order, it is more important than ever that investors are operating with an effective macro-market framework.

After feeling the pulse of markets flow through my veins for the last few decades, I have come to understand that markets go through cycles within cycles. That may sound obvious, but let me explain.

There are periods in which the macro is dominant; examples of macro dominance catalysts include Fed interest rate decisions, employment data, and financial crises (GFC, Eurozone sovereign debt crisis, covid lockdowns etc.). There are also periods where the macro is relatively placid and the main drivers of market alpha are the micro, more company-specific drivers, such as corporate earnings, industry trends, drill results (junior mining), and factors as simple as corporate buybacks and short squeezes.

Today, we find ourselves in an environment in which the macro is dominant. From a US President who fancies himself as a tariff man, ruling by executive order, to a global financial system that is being reshaped by powerful demographic trends, rapidly accelerating technological advancements, and a transition from unipolar (US superpower amid US exceptionalism) to multi-polar (US, China, Europe).

The macro is critical, so much so that those who get it wrong could be left behind for a lifetime.

In 2025, investors have never had more distractions; there have never been more listed stocks & ETFs, more leveraged ETFs, more cryptocurrencies, more tokens, more memecoins, and more opportunities to make bad decisions with their money.

With the US national debt approaching $37 trillion, the US debt/GDP ratio is ~125%. The numbers are daunting, and the analysis of looming unfunded US government liabilities (Social Security, Medicare, Medicaid, etc.) is nothing short of depressing.

Based upon public statements from President Trump, Treasury Secretary Bessent, and others in the administration it is becoming crystal clear that Trump 2.0 is rolling out an economic game plan that is very similar to one that was successfully used in the 1950s and 1960s.

Understanding the intricacies of this economic game plan and learning how to navigate a rapidly changing macroeconomic/financial market landscape is crucial to avoiding financial pitfalls, and generating superior investment returns.